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Old 09-20-2013, 07:57 PM   #45
Toddy
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 14

toddyrbs's Gamercard
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ethereal235 View Post
I checked up on this, and it seems that none of the BAWSAQ stocks have moved at all since launch, so I'm thinking it probably varies based exclusively on the GTA Online stuff. I'm also thinking that it won't actually respond to players investing, but rather to what kind of stuff is destroyed/robbed/bought in the online portion of the game.

It might still be a good investment once October 1st comes around (unless it's a competitor with AmmuNation), but it's probably not going to change until then.
These are my considerations, taking in consideration both the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Single Player Stock Market Mechanics:
  1. Original price of stock was around $20 a stock, something like that, and right now it sits at $0.76 or so
  2. The market corrects itself, supposedly in the game this is true as well
  3. Market movement is random, however we can predict it in game by knowing which companies we are hitting (heists, assassinations, etc)
  4. Ammu-nation is the only in-game store you buy weapons (other than online)
  5. Therefore ammu-nation is open to being robbed by gangs/crews
  6. Lots of players will be online from day one (oct 1st), and will definitely be with friends or randoms trying to rob places
  7. Ammu-nation is definitely an easy target (comes to mind easily)
  8. Ammu-nation is definitely getting robbed a lot, at least before players figure out the best heists (cost/benefit) and start farming them
  9. That being true, there will be a hike in HAL's share price
  10. If it is enough to raise it from $0.76 to $1.50 dollars (which it should, given the initial price of $20.00 or more, gotta check), we are facing 100% returns.
  11. Considering $1.50 is still way below the $20.00 mark, there's a lot of room for growth in share prices, if players take action against HAL's competitors (which i assume ammu-nation would be one)

However, some elements are relevant and need to be known for this logic to apply:
What shares have positive and negative correlations with HAL's shares? In this case I'm simply guessing ammunation would be negatively correlated to HAL
How often does the market update its data (once a day, it seems?)
At what time does the update take place (haven't figured this one yet, can anyone confirm it?)

Regarding a small amount of players (which we are, compared to the GTA Online total population) trying to manipulate prices by investing huge amounts, Dow Theory states that trends are confirmed by volume rather than aggressive investors, but we gotta wait and see how it was implemented before reaching conclusions
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Last edited by Toddy; 09-20-2013 at 08:04 PM.
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