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Old 02-08-2011, 05:08 AM   #1
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Odds of Mystery Box?

Since people have calculated/hacked the odds of getting certain killstreaks in the care packages i wonder if anyone has done the same with the Mystery Box in zombies.

I am just interested as despite that nearly every match i can eventually get a ray gun, i have never received a crossbow and only once have I got a ballistic knife (for which i quickly got the achievement).

Anyone have any links/ideas?

-Thankyou
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Old 02-08-2011, 05:35 AM   #2
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I've seen crossbow twice and NEVER seen knife. Mainly cuz the only thing/person that keeps me alive in zombies is already using it.
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Old 02-08-2011, 05:51 AM   #3
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Funny cause I always get the knife in the mystery box almost in every match that i play but no ray gun.
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Old 02-08-2011, 06:22 AM   #4
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I hate it when I get the same weapon three times in a row like the sniper rifle.
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Old 02-08-2011, 07:01 AM   #5
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So no-one has an idea of the chances/odds?

Also, today i got the python 3 times in a row :/
I also managed to get the crossbow twice but it was when i was playing spiltscreen with my brother (who is terrible) i was checking if we could survive enough to atleast get the achievement) but he is just so bad...
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Old 02-08-2011, 07:19 AM   #6
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If there is any rhyme or reason of that thing I would like to know as well. Was playing earlier going for the Gersh device achievement with a bud, we must have played 10 games trying 5-10 times a piece with no luck. Then one game I roll it, get the gersh device, so I stop he goes, and another gersh device...
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Old 02-08-2011, 09:39 AM   #7
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If there is any rhyme or reason of that thing I would like to know as well. Was playing earlier going for the Gersh device achievement with a bud, we must have played 10 games trying 5-10 times a piece with no luck. Then one game I roll it, get the gersh device, so I stop he goes, and another gersh device...

Exactly,
There is only a set amount in the box 4 of each power-weapon from my knowledge, and each time one is taken out the already low chance of say getting a Ray Gun becomes even lower. Example; i was the only one on the team of 4 to no have a Ray Gun, over the course of say 10 rounds i sunk about 60,000 into the Mystery Box and i never received it. I have seen this happen multiple times once with a guy whom after spending 50,000 finally receiving it, showing it is possible just even more rare than usual.

Must have had some seriously good luck to get two gersh devices in a row.
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Old 02-08-2011, 12:12 PM   #8
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I hate it when I get the same weapon three times in a row like the sniper rifle.
THAT!!

Who actually uses sniper rifles in zombies anyway?? it's not like you can camp somewhere and pick them off, right?
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Old 02-08-2011, 12:36 PM   #9
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I've had the china lake 6 times in a row on the box but apart from that the box is usually quite nice to me but i do still get the odd druganov, these days on kino i pack a punch my pistol which i start with, when i run out of this i start to use the box and most runs il get a ray gun or a good AR/LMG.
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Old 02-08-2011, 12:49 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mother Beef View Post
Since people have calculated/hacked the odds of getting certain killstreaks in the care packages i wonder if anyone has done the same with the Mystery Box in zombies.

I am just interested as despite that nearly every match i can eventually get a ray gun, i have never received a crossbow and only once have I got a ballistic knife (for which i quickly got the achievement).

Anyone have any links/ideas?


-Thankyou
I think it is completely random. I played yesterday, in two following games I got the crossbow on my first pull. One guy had the knife 4 times in one game. Once I pull the knife 2 times in a row. Once we don't see any of them. I think also after you got the cheevo, you get these more often.
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THAT!!

Who actually uses sniper rifles in zombies anyway?? it's not like you can camp somewhere and pick them off, right?
Yeah, the sniper just the same as the pistol: a huge slap in your face.

Off: I am glad to see I became famous by getting into Chathams Finest's signature.

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Old 02-08-2011, 01:02 PM   #11
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I hate the box but would be cool if zombies drop a select gun. So you can go to the box and pick one gun for a higher price.
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Old 02-08-2011, 02:56 PM   #12
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I refuse to believe it is completely random, it wouldnt make sense, there would have to be some "more random" than others, hence why shit guns come up a lot more frequently then decent/power weapons.

Why are you on his ignore list? haha what did you do?!
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Old 02-08-2011, 03:15 PM   #13
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There obviously has to be odds for each weapon. If, by "random," you mean every gun is just as likely to pop up as the others, well that just can't be true. Just like with care package rewards, frequencies had to have been programmed into the game for the Mystery Box. Would be interesting to know, but I don't see how it'd change anything, since there's nothing you can do about it, other than just put a lot more money into the box.

My first zombie game on Kino with 2 friends, I got the crossbow my second of third attempt on the box. Next game I played with only 1 friend, and we both got the ballistic knife in the same game, before round 18, one right after another (after he used his and then dropped it, to make sure I'd have a chance at getting it).

Hopefully my luck wasn't all used up then, and I won't have to try forever to get a Gersch Device.
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Old 02-08-2011, 03:17 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mother Beef View Post
I refuse to believe it is completely random, it wouldnt make sense, there would have to be some "more random" than others, hence why shit guns come up a lot more frequently then decent/power weapons.

Why are you on his ignore list? haha what did you do?!
Well, I still think it is random. Was a guy who needed the crossbow, he got always the Ray Gun/Thunder Gun combo. We even laughed on the fact that he gets all the good stuff but not what he needs while we who needed the good stuff got nothing. I think they programmed an 'annoyance routine' in it.

As for the ignore list I don't know as I can't recall me doing anything bad against him. Maybe he got tired about me pointing out the correct way to the kids.

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There obviously has to be odds for each weapon. If, by "random," you mean every gun is just as likely to pop up as the others, well that just can't be true. Just like with care package rewards, frequencies had to have been programmed into the game for the Mystery Box. Would be interesting to know, but I don't see how it'd change anything, since there's nothing you can do about it, other than just put a lot more money into the box.

My first zombie game on Kino with 2 friends, I got the crossbow my second of third attempt on the box. Next game I played with only 1 friend, and we both got the ballistic knife in the same game, before round 18, one right after another (after he used his and then dropped it, to make sure I'd have a chance at getting it).

Hopefully my luck wasn't all used up then, and I won't have to try forever to get a Gersch Device.
I am not sure 'random' means the same as 'with the same chance'. It is more like the fruit machines, sometimes you get the 3 cherry but sometimes you just loose all your money.
I played many games and I never seen any pattern in it. Sometimes you lucky, sometimes you're not.

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Old 02-08-2011, 04:06 PM   #15
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I've gotten the bow once and seen it got maybe 5 times, got the knife once and have seem it maybe 10 times. I have seen/got the spas 40 times
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Old 02-08-2011, 04:13 PM   #16
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Quote:
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I hate it when I get the same weapon three times in a row like the sniper rifle.
Yeah I think the Dragnov and the other sniper are my most frequent weapons
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Old 02-08-2011, 04:20 PM   #17
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I've gotten the bow once and seen it got maybe 5 times, got the knife once and have seem it maybe 10 times. I have seen/got the spas 40 times
I had crossbow more often than the Spas. Just yesterday we had crossbow about 3-4 times in a couple of hours. When I got the achievement, I got the crossbow on my first pull, before the dogs. (at 6th round, I think)
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Old 02-08-2011, 04:40 PM   #18
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Well considering I've seen the M72 Law 3 times in a row, and the Spas twice. I think it's just random. No real pattern. I've gotten the thundergun like 3 times but never the raygun. It is just random to my knowledge.
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Old 02-08-2011, 05:29 PM   #19
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A few things. First is a definition that seems to be causing confusion:

Random has many different quite different meanings. But when it is used in a numerical/statistical sense like it is here it does mean that any one thing is as likely to occur as any other.

The example of a slot machine is not a good one. Slot machines in Britain have to state on them what the return they offer is (say 80%, over an infinite set of games, each pound gets turned into 80 pence). Machines in Vegas have the same laws about fixed returns, but they just don't have to publish them on the machine. Vegas gives better returns so you lose your money slower and convince yourself that each small win that takes you almost back to where you started is the one before the big one that takes you to the Maldives.

Next, you can't asses the odds of something happening based on a limited number of rolls of the dice. Human brains are very, very good at spotting patterns, even when they aren't there. I've been to casinos with intelligent people what have seen red come up in roulette 10 times in a row and they have insisted that black is more likely on the next spin. These machines are spin tested millions of times to ensure there is no such bias. But when you look at the last 30 spins you will automatically see a pattern and believe you can make statements about what will happen next with any degree of success. It's how they make money. (I know people can watch a live wheel and the ball and figure out where the ball will land, but I'm talking about looking at results backwards, as it is in the game).

Lastly, I haven't read any information about the mystery box rolls and I've read a lot about the game, this suggests their isn't any information to be read. A lack of information would suggest that there is an equal chance of getting everything (if some guns were weighted there would be tables explaining the weighting). This only leans towards one conclusion but doesn't prove it.

There is some method to the madness, but it revolves around when the teddy bear comes. When you first open the box there is a zero percent chance of getting the bear. That chance gradually increases. This could mean the weapons aren't random unless the game does successive rolls. The first for the teddy, the second for the gun. If it did a combined roll the odds for the guns would change, but the odds of any one gun wouldn't because they'll all being reduced equally by the bear.

There is also information suggesting that on the old maps some of the weapons are more likely in earlier rounds. For example the ray gun is more common early on in Nacht der Untoten and rarer later on, which is a reversal of all the other WaW maps. Whether this carries forwards into Black Ops I don't know.

There a bunch of seemingly defunct claims too about the quality iof weapon being linked to the brightness of the pulsing question marks on the outside of the box. The claims themselves don't have sources, but the people disproving them simply say "it's nonsense, it's just random" but again, no sources.

I don't know what to tell you OP. There is some method to the madness, but I don't know how much of it carries to Black Ops and I can't tell you anything about numbers. Which is annoying because I like numbers.
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Old 02-08-2011, 05:42 PM   #20
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Ironically, before getting the achievements of the BK and of the CB, these two cursed weapons were never appearing to me. After getting the cheevos, I got 3 crossbows in a row. Fuckin' Frustrating.
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Old 02-08-2011, 06:28 PM   #21
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Their might be fixed percentages on what you get from the care package crate in multiplayer but I am pretty sure it has no relation to the mystery box. Everything in the box seems to be random.
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Old 02-08-2011, 07:26 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamburgerous View Post
A few things. First is a definition that seems to be causing confusion:
...
I don't know what to tell you OP. There is some method to the madness, but I don't know how much of it carries to Black Ops and I can't tell you anything about numbers. Which is annoying because I like numbers.
Well, I think I have to bow before you.
I would add that when I brought up the fruit machine I was aware the fact that they have a % set up for pay-offs. The box might have also the same system. But as you usually don't sit in front of the machine until you win you can't try the box either because someone has to go or you die before you get what you want. New game might shuffle the whole thing.
I didn't learn statistics but I can still imagine that your chances to get the crossbow are similar as winning in the fruit machine: sometimes you go there and you win right away (because many lost before you) and sometimes you get completely robbed.
Now it seems that I contradict myself by stating that it has something like a percentage-payout system AND it is random, but the randomisation comes from the fact that you break your games sometimes. (die, or have to go)
Only way to solve this mistery (haha) buy people submitting their pulls and see what comes out of it.

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Ironically, before getting the achievements of the BK and of the CB, these two cursed weapons were never appearing to me. After getting the cheevos, I got 3 crossbows in a row. Fuckin' Frustrating.
I've seen the same. I think if a few more people would confirm this we could say more safely that after the cheevos you more likely get crossbow or the knife.

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Old 02-08-2011, 07:31 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamburgerous View Post
A few things. First is a definition that seems to be causing confusion:

Random has many different quite different meanings. But when it is used in a numerical/statistical sense like it is here it does mean that any one thing is as likely to occur as any other.

The example of a slot machine is not a good one. Slot machines in Britain have to state on them what the return they offer is (say 80%, over an infinite set of games, each pound gets turned into 80 pence). Machines in Vegas have the same laws about fixed returns, but they just don't have to publish them on the machine. Vegas gives better returns so you lose your money slower and convince yourself that each small win that takes you almost back to where you started is the one before the big one that takes you to the Maldives.

Next, you can't asses the odds of something happening based on a limited number of rolls of the dice. Human brains are very, very good at spotting patterns, even when they aren't there. I've been to casinos with intelligent people what have seen red come up in roulette 10 times in a row and they have insisted that black is more likely on the next spin. These machines are spin tested millions of times to ensure there is no such bias. But when you look at the last 30 spins you will automatically see a pattern and believe you can make statements about what will happen next with any degree of success. It's how they make money. (I know people can watch a live wheel and the ball and figure out where the ball will land, but I'm talking about looking at results backwards, as it is in the game).

Lastly, I haven't read any information about the mystery box rolls and I've read a lot about the game, this suggests their isn't any information to be read. A lack of information would suggest that there is an equal chance of getting everything (if some guns were weighted there would be tables explaining the weighting). This only leans towards one conclusion but doesn't prove it.

There is some method to the madness, but it revolves around when the teddy bear comes. When you first open the box there is a zero percent chance of getting the bear. That chance gradually increases. This could mean the weapons aren't random unless the game does successive rolls. The first for the teddy, the second for the gun. If it did a combined roll the odds for the guns would change, but the odds of any one gun wouldn't because they'll all being reduced equally by the bear.

There is also information suggesting that on the old maps some of the weapons are more likely in earlier rounds. For example the ray gun is more common early on in Nacht der Untoten and rarer later on, which is a reversal of all the other WaW maps. Whether this carries forwards into Black Ops I don't know.

There a bunch of seemingly defunct claims too about the quality iof weapon being linked to the brightness of the pulsing question marks on the outside of the box. The claims themselves don't have sources, but the people disproving them simply say "it's nonsense, it's just random" but again, no sources.

I don't know what to tell you OP. There is some method to the madness, but I don't know how much of it carries to Black Ops and I can't tell you anything about numbers. Which is annoying because I like numbers.
My honest reaction when I saw your post. "Oh my fucking god..."
Anyways, I personally think it's random with all the guns except the raygun, freezegun, thundergun, etc. Those probably have less odds of coming up. Say for example there's a 5% chance of each gun coming up, then the waffle weapons would be maybe 2 or 3%. What do you think Hamburgerous?
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Old 02-08-2011, 07:45 PM   #24
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My honest reaction when I saw your post. "Oh my fucking god..."
Anyways, I personally think it's random with all the guns except the raygun, freezegun, thundergun, etc. Those probably have less odds of coming up. Say for example there's a 5% chance of each gun coming up, then the waffle weapons would be maybe 2 or 3%. What do you think Hamburgerous?
It makes sense logically (yes, I know I'm not Hamburgerous), since one would think that better guns would be rarer in the mystery box. The rest of the regular guns (LMGs, ARs, SMGs) don't have significant advantages over each other. Sure, there's fire rate, clip size, reload speed and damage per bullet, but when you're talking about zombies, it isn't really that significant. So I wouldn't be surprised if, as you said, each of these guns has the same probability of popping up. It also seems logical that the power (waffle) weapons would be rarer, seeing as how they have significant advantages over the regular weapons.
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Old 02-08-2011, 07:52 PM   #25
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It makes sense logically (yes, I know I'm not Hamburgerous), since one would think that better guns would be rarer in the mystery box. The rest of the regular guns (LMGs, ARs, SMGs) don't have significant advantages over each other. Sure, there's fire rate, clip size, reload speed and damage per bullet, but when you're talking about zombies, it isn't really that significant. So I wouldn't be surprised if, as you said, each of these guns has the same probability of popping up. It also seems logical that the power (waffle) weapons would be rarer, seeing as how they have significant advantages over the regular weapons.
But here comes that from my last 3 pull were 2 crossbow.
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Old 02-08-2011, 08:15 PM   #26
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I can guarantee someone on my team will get a ray gun. It happens literally every game with me.
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Old 02-08-2011, 08:29 PM   #27
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I think in each game there are different odds of the weapons to come up.
In some games you're in round 15 and didn't get raygun/bow/knife and in others you get the bow in round 3
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Old 02-08-2011, 08:59 PM   #28
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I think you have to consider the possibility that the odds for the weapons from the box could be different for each map. For example, I have never got the ballistic knife, until Ascention. I get the knife all the time on that map, and I attribute this to the fact that the knife is needed for the huge mystery easter egg.

http://www.xbox360achievements.org/f...d.php?t=292363

So it appears to me that they made the odds for the knife higher on this map, but the box does act differently on Ascention then the other maps, which could be more/less random then the non-dlc maps.
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Old 02-08-2011, 10:11 PM   #29
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Considering the weapons list for the Kino mystery box is:

AUG (with Swarvoski Scope)
Ballistic Knife
China Lake
Commando
Crossbow
CZ75
Dragunov
FAMAS
FN FAL
G11 (with Low Power Scope)
Galil
HS-10
HK21
L96A1
M72 LAW
Monkey Bomb
Python
Ray Gun
RPK
SPAS-12
Spectre
Thundergun

With only the bold weapons being the wonder weapons, I'd say it's already stacked against you to get those weapons. There is a 1 in 22 chance of getting any specific weapon (assuming it's random) but who remembers when they got the Spectre or the HS-10? All you remember is either "I GOT THE ONE I WANTED" or the exact opposite. I've looked and can't find numbers behind the rolls, but looking at how many guns there are and how many times I've got each of them it feels about right.

Necrophages point about the power weapons being rarer is handled by the choice of the guns. They are rarer because their are many more normal weapons than power weapons.

As I said in a previous post there were nuances to the older zombie maps that affected weapon selection from the mystery gods, but I've read nothing that suggests that is the case in Black ops.

Instinct tells me every weapon is equally likely and so does experience, but neither is a reliable witness and until Treyarch confirm either way I can't really conclude anything.
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Old 02-09-2011, 12:30 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamburgerous View Post
Considering the weapons list for the Kino mystery box is:

AUG (with Swarvoski Scope)
Ballistic Knife
China Lake
Commando
Crossbow
CZ75
Dragunov
FAMAS
FN FAL
G11 (with Low Power Scope)
Galil
HS-10
HK21
L96A1
M72 LAW
Monkey Bomb
Python
Ray Gun
RPK
SPAS-12
Spectre
Thundergun

With only the bold weapons being the wonder weapons, I'd say it's already stacked against you to get those weapons. There is a 1 in 22 chance of getting any specific weapon (assuming it's random) but who remembers when they got the Spectre or the HS-10? All you remember is either "I GOT THE ONE I WANTED" or the exact opposite. I've looked and can't find numbers behind the rolls, but looking at how many guns there are and how many times I've got each of them it feels about right.

Necrophages point about the power weapons being rarer is handled by the choice of the guns. They are rarer because their are many more normal weapons than power weapons.

As I said in a previous post there were nuances to the older zombie maps that affected weapon selection from the mystery gods, but I've read nothing that suggests that is the case in Black ops.

Instinct tells me every weapon is equally likely and so does experience, but neither is a reliable witness and until Treyarch confirm either way I can't really conclude anything.
You can get the CZ75 Akimbo as well, making it at least a 1 in 23 chance of getting a power weapon.
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